Rudd will lose election

In a comment on a social media forum on 16 June I predicted that Kevin Rudd could succeed as ALP leader if he were able to prove himself equal to the task of uniting Labor behind him, emerge as a strong leader, and not concede any mistakes.

kevin-rudd-august-2013

I forgot to mention a more fundamental challenge he faced: to present to the electorate a clear value proposition explaining why he and Labor are different to Abbott and the Coalition, why running a deficit is not the end of the world, and how it will soften a return to surplus for taxpayers, and why Labor’s longer-term approach is better for Australia altogether.

Neither Rudd nor anyone else in his team has done anything of the kind. The visible politics are all about personalities, and it seems Rudd’s honeymoon popularity was over before it could really emerge as a strength, let alone an election-winning coup de grâce the way some commentators saw it when Rudd challenged and beat Julia Gillard for the leadership on 26 June.

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